A Study of Population Ages Structure and Health Care Expenditure in India

Kajian Keperluan Struktur Umur dan Perbelanjaan Penjagaan Kesihatan di India


  • Nurhaiza Nordin UMK
  • Nurnaddia Nordin KUIS
  • Normaz Wana Ismail UPM


Population ages structure, healthcare expenditure, India, ARDL model


This paper examines the relationship between population ages structure and health care expenditure in the case of India. Total population in India increased from year to year, as in 1970 total population is 5.54 million and increased to 1.25 billion. Projection of population established in 2015 predict that the total population will keep growing until at least 2050, reaching an estimated 8 billion people in 2024, and 9 billion people in 2024 and 9 billion by 2040. As the demographic transition follows its course worldwide, the population will age significantly, with most countries outside Africa trending towards a rectangular age pyramid. As a increasingly in population ages structure, population ages 0-14 years, population ages 15-64 years and population ages 65 years and above and this will increased in consume of the healthcare expenditure. As we know that, total young population and ageing population are increased from year to year. Thus in this paper is estimate the effect of population in population ages structure especially as an increased in number of young population (ages 0-14 years) and ageing population (ages 65 years and above) on healthcare expenditure in case of India. By using bound testing approach to cointegration and error correction model, developed within an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework developed by Pesaran et al. (1999) and data cover from period 1970-2012, we investigate whether a long-run equilibrium relationship exists between population ages structure and health care expenditure. Using this approach, we find evidence of long run relationship between population ages structure and health care expenditure, gross domestic product per capita, inflation rate and hospital beds in India but the population ages 65 years and above is most influence health care expenditure. These findings support the hypothesis that population ages structure will increased healthcare expenditure in India.

Kajian ini mengkaji hubungan antara struktur usia penduduk dan perbelanjaan penjagaan kesihatan dalam kajian kes di India. Jumlah penduduk di India semakin meningkat dari tahun ke tahun, pada tahun 1970 jumlah penduduk adalah 5.54 juta dan meningkat kepada 1.25 bilion. Unjuran penduduk pada tahun 2015 meramalkan bahawa jumlah penduduk akan terus berkembang sehingga sekurang-kurangnya 2050, mencapai anggaran 8 bilion orang pada tahun 2024, dan 9 bilion orang pada tahun 2024 dan 9 bilion pada tahun 2040. Memandangkan peralihan demografi di seluruh dunia, penduduk akan bertambah dengan ketara, dengan kebanyakan negara di Afrika contohnya, yang sedang menuju ke arah piramid umur segi empat tepat. Struktur usia penduduk yang semakin meningkat, penduduk umur 0-14 tahun, penduduk umur 15-64 tahun dan penduduk umur 65 tahun ke atas dan ini akan meningkat dalam penggunaan perbelanjaan penjagaan kesihatan. Seperti yang kita ketahui, jumlah penduduk muda dan populasi golongan tua meningkat dari tahun ke tahun. Oleh itu, dalam kajian ini, menganggarkan kesan penduduk dalam struktur umur penduduk terutamanya sebagai peningkatan jumlah penduduk muda (umur 0-14 tahun) dan populasi yang semakin tua (umur 65 tahun ke atas) mengenai perbelanjaan penjagaan kesihatan dalam kes India. Dengan menggunakan pendekatan ujian terikat untuk model “cointegration” dibangunkan dalam “autoregressive distributed lag” (ARDL) yang dibangunkan oleh Pesaran et al. (1999) dan menggunakan data dari tempoh 1970-2012, kami mengkaji sama ada hubungan keseimbangan jangka panjang wujud antara struktur usia penduduk dan perbelanjaan penjagaan kesihatan. Dengan menggunakan pendekatan ini, kita dapati bukti hubungan jangka panjang antara struktur umur penduduk dan perbelanjaan penjagaan kesihatan, jumlah pertumbuhan domestik ekonomi, kadar inflasi dan jumlah katil hospital di India dan penduduk berumur 65 tahun ke atas paling mempengaruhi perbelanjaan penjagaan kesihatan. Penemuan ini menyokong hipotesis bahawa struktur umur penduduk akan meningkatkan perbelanjaan penjagaan kesihatan di India.


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How to Cite

Nordin, N. ., Nordin, N. ., & Ismail, N. W. . (2017). A Study of Population Ages Structure and Health Care Expenditure in India: Kajian Keperluan Struktur Umur dan Perbelanjaan Penjagaan Kesihatan di India. Journal of Management and Muamalah , 7(1), 1 - 17. Retrieved from https://jmm.kuis.edu.my/index.php/jurnal/article/view/62